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Pick Price Levels With Fibonacci
Retracement
By
Christy Olin
One of the toughest parts of trading in futures—and in
equity markets for that matter—is choosing entry and
exit points. Fundamental and technical analysis of the
markets can aid in determining market direction, while
one technical study in particular (Fibonacci Retracement
Lines) can be helpful in picking price levels for
getting into the market and placing stop losses after a
particular channel has established a near-term high and
low.
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Fibonacci Retracement is a
mathematical equation—representing most commonly 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% of a
price trend in a futures market. These levels are considered strong levels
of support or resistance in the market, and typical levels for a correction of a
long-term, well-established trend. A move straight up or down is rare in
any market; the Fibonacci Lines are ways to better determine entry points into a
market. Below is a chart of December Corn with the Fibonacci Retracement drawn:
The red line is the established upward trendline, which started in
late September of 2006. The low of the trendline is the point of 100%
retracement, and the high of that channel is the top of the retracement study.
As the market breaks down through the established trendline (as shown near the
first red arrow), it trades down all the way to the 50% retracement line. The
market then rallies, but cannot sustain the move above the previous high and it
breaks down below the 61.8% line. Each of the Fibonacci Lines represent
critical levels in this market. If a trader is a long-term bull of corn, he/she
is looking to buy if the market can sustain rallies through these levels. In
the meantime, traders could attempt to take advantage of the near-term downtrend
if the market cannot sustain rallies above the Fibonacci Lines. In this market,
it appears there is not enough pressure to continue trading below the 61.8%
line.
Futures Market Analyst Dennis Gartman highlights retracements he sees in a
variety of markets in his publication, The Gartman Letter. He especially
focuses on what he has termed "The Box," created by connecting lines between the
50% and 61.8% retracement lines. If a market trades into The Box, it is
considered that the retracement has run its course and the original direction of
the trend will resume in the market. In the example above, the corn market has
done just that. Attempts to break below the 61.8% line ultimately failed—and on
the whole, the market traded sideways between the 50% and 61.8% lines.
A futures market that has a well-defined channel (either up or down) over the
long-term and has established a high and low is a candidate for using Fibonacci
analysis. Drawing a line connecting the high and low of a particular channel
using this tool then projects the 38.2, 50 and 61.8 percent retracement levels.
These levels are critical trading levels in these markets. Taking into account
fundamental news and watching the markets to determine if it can sustain rallies
or breaks above or below these levels can be helpful in determining entry and
exit points for traders.
Special Message From Our Author:
Want the Latest Information
on the Soybeans Market?
Get a FREE Summer 2007
Soybeans Report from RJOFutures. This comprehensive guide
gives you regional analysis of 2007 soybean plantings, world
soybean data, and much more.
About Today's Author:
After earning my
bachelor's degree in economics from Northwestern University, I was inspired by family and
friends who have been involved in the futures industry
in a variety of forms. As a competitive swimmer for four
years in college, I knew I would need a career that is
challenging and fast-paced. I joined the RJOFutures team
of brokers in order to grow within what I find to be a
very exciting industry. I would like the opportunity to
work with you as your connection to the futures'
markets. You can reach me at
colin@rjofutures.com. |